TOKYO -- There is mounting evidence that Kim Jong Il is losing the propaganda war inside North Korea, with more than half the population now listening to foreign news, grass-roots cynicism undercutting state myths and discontent rising even among elites.
A survey of refugees has found that "everyday forms of resistance" in the North are taking root as large swaths of the population believe that pervasive corruption, rising inequity and chronic food shortages are the fault of the government in Pyongyang -- and not of the United States, South Korea or other foreign forces. The report will be released this week by the East-West Center, a research group established by Congress.
The report comes amid unconfirmed accounts from inside North Korea of a rising number of starvation deaths caused by a bad harvest and bungled currency reform that disrupted food markets, caused runaway inflation and triggered widespread citizen unrest.
Last week, North Korea reportedly executed the top finance official responsible for the currency fiasco, and several top officials have publicly apologized -- a remarkable turn for a dictatorship that enslaves and executes its political enemies in labor camps.
The number of starvation deaths in South Pyongan province, in the center of the country, is in the thousands since January, according to Good Friends, a Seoul relief group with informants inside North Korea. It said bodies of malnourished elderly people were being found in the streets of Pyongyang, the capital, and it quoted unnamed party officials as saying that starvation has risen in some areas this winter to levels unseen since the 1990s, when famine killed as many as 1 million North Koreans.
This mix of deadly food shortages, bureaucratic bumbling and rising cynicism presents a potentially destabilizing threat to Kim's government. It comes at a delicate time, when the ailing 68-year-old leader has launched a secretive process to hand power over to his untested 27-year-old son, Kim Jong Eun.
"Once a government has so badly damaged trust, it may be very difficult, if not impossible, to restore its credibility," said Marcus Noland, co-author of "Political Attitudes under Repression," the new report on a survey of North Korean refugees.
Although Kim's government appears to be losing the hearts and minds of North Koreans, there is little or no indication that organized opposition has emerged inside the country, said Noland, deputy director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.
But signals of internal stress are growing, according to another new report on conditions inside North Korea. The International Crisis Group, an independent group that advises many Western governments and U.N. agencies, said last week that pressure from the deteriorating food supply and "disastrous" currency reform "could have a number of unanticipated consequences for regional international security. A sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question."
The refugee survey suggests that the ground beneath Kim's government has shifted considerably in the past decade, as private markets have exploded in size and influence -- and as most North Koreans are no longer dependent on the dysfunctional central government for food or work.
The results in the report are based on a November 2008 survey of 300 North Korean refugees living in South Korea. The refugees in the survey -- parts of which were first publicized last fall -- include new arrivals as well as those who fled during the height of the 1990s famine.
"Evaluations of the regime appear to be getting more negative over time," the report said. "Although those who departed earlier were more willing to entertain the view that the country's problems were due to foreigners, respondents who left later were more likely to hold the government accountable."
Noland and his co-author, Stephan Haggard, an Asian specialist at the University of California in San Diego, concede that the survey -- with its reliance on a self-selected group that made the perilous choice to flee North Korea -- might overrepresent those who abhor the leadership in Pyongyang. But they note that most refugees fled the North for economic reasons and that their demographic background roughly mirrors the shape of North Korean society.
The survey found that cynicism about the government -- and willingness to crack jokes about its failures -- was higher among refugees who come from elite backgrounds in the government or military. It also found that distaste for the government was strongest among those deeply involved in the markets.
The most striking finding of the survey was the reach of those markets across all strata of North Korean society, with nearly 70 percent of respondents saying that half or more of their income came from private business dealings.
In addition, more than half of refugees who have fled North Korea since 2006 said they listened or watched foreign news reports regularly. North Korea outlaws radios and TVs that can be tuned to foreign stations, but consumer electronics have flooded into the country from China.
"Not only is foreign media becoming more widely available, inhibitions on its consumption are declining as well," the report said, referring to broadcasts from South Korea, China and the United States. "The availability of alternative sources of information undermines the heroic image of a workers' paradise and threatens to unleash the information cascade that can be so destabilizing to authoritarian rule."
该报援引美国国会属下“东西中心”发布的报告，指出朝鲜人在改变思维，以前认为美国和韩国等外部势力造成了其境内的粮荒，但是现在更多人相信是朝鲜本身的体制问题，是不平等和腐败所导致的结果，因此出现了“日常形态的抵抗势力”，并且在逐渐扎根茁壮。
由国际经济研究所的副所长马克思·诺兰德和圣地亚哥加州州立大学教授斯逖芬·海格德，于2008年11月共同著作的该报告说：“一旦政府失去了民心，将会很难重新恢复。”“金正日政权似乎在逐渐失去民心，但是尚未发现有抵抗势力的征兆。”
报告说，过去10年的期间，朝鲜境内市场的规模和影响力在急速成长，大部分的朝鲜人对粮食和职业不再依靠中央政府，这说明，朝鲜政权的基层出现了很大的变化。
随着时间的推移，对朝鲜人对其政权的评价越来越趋向于否定方向。比较早期逃离朝鲜的脱北者将朝鲜内部问题归咎于外部的影响，而最近逃离的脱北者却认为是朝鲜政权本身累积的问题。
2位作者认为，脱北者的大部分或多或少地对朝鲜政权都有一种反感，所以证词会有一些夸张，但很明确的一点是，经济问题是促使他们逃离朝鲜的主要背景，这反映了朝鲜的社会现象。
报告还说，对朝鲜政权的冷笑现象充斥在政府官吏、精英阶层和军人等。尤其参与市场活动的商人，他们的不满最多。
参加问卷的脱北者里有七成表示，他们的收入来自私人交易，这表示，几乎所有的人都在参与市场活动。
另外，2006年之后逃离朝鲜的脱北者表示，至少有1半的人在听取海外新闻。海外新闻主要是中国、韩国或美国的广播。自从可以接触海外新闻之后，“工人乐园”的神话形象受到损伤，权威统治因此而出现动摇。
报道还引用联合国咨询机构“国际危机集团（ICG）”的另一份报告说，朝鲜内部的压力讯号在逐渐增大，粮荒和货币改革也许会对该地区的国际安保会造成意想不到的结果。
ICG的报告说：“虽然可能性不是很大，但是不能完全排除朝鲜领导层会突然崩溃的可能性。”（完）韩联社首尔3月18日电 有消息说，朝鲜劳动党前计划财政部长朴南基，因货币改革失败上周在平壤被枪决。
多名对朝消息人士18日对韩联社透露："朝鲜当局于上周在平壤市顺安区的某一射击场，枪决了朴南基。""货改失败后，朝鲜居民对此产生了不满情绪，并这给金正银的接班带来了负面影响，因此朝鲜把一切责任推卸给朴南基，以反革命分子的罪名，予以枪决。"
消息人士称："朝鲜当局还给朴南基强加了'作为大地主的儿子，潜入革命队伍，蓄意置国家经济于死地'的罪名。"
消息人士还介绍说："但朝鲜的精英以及普通老百姓都几乎不相信朴南基的罪名。""大部分都认为，他是朝鲜领导班子的替罪羔羊。"
朴南基于1月中旬在中央党全部干部出席的"中央党大论争"上，受到了强烈的批评，之后被拘禁，并接受了国家安全保卫部的审讯。（完）
韓國 傳媒引述消息人士表示，美國 主管亞太事務官員預言，朝鮮領袖金正日 的壽命可能只剩下3年。
韓聯社今日引述消息人士透露，美國負責亞太事務的助理國務卿坎貝爾在2月訪問韓國時，就朝鮮國防委員長金正日的壽命、朝鮮的接班工作等較敏感的問題，表示了看法。
坎貝爾於2月3日在美駐韓大使館同自由先進黨議員朴宣映和民主黨 最高委員張裳等人進行了非公開會晤。與會人士表示，坎貝爾在席間說：「總結醫學專家的意見，金正日的壽命可能只剩下3年。」
出席會晤的一位人士說：「在會晤上，與會人士們很自然地提到了金正日的健康問題。當時有一位人士表示自己的看法說，（金正日所剩壽命）不會超過5年，並向坎貝爾詢問了意見。坎貝爾便回答說不會超過3年。」
坎貝爾就朝鮮建立接班體系的問題說：「金正日陪同金日成接受了長達10年以上的接班人教育。但金正日的三子金正銀（音）需要在2至3年內完成世襲傳承，因此對朝鮮來說，這會是很艱難的時期。」
坎貝爾還展望稱：「朝鮮勞動黨行政部長張成澤作為監護人，同金正銀保持著密切的關係，但這種關係不會長久。朝鮮內部可能在今後3至5年內出現問題。」
（韓聯社）
